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Thursday, April 27, 2006
What if?
What if two forms of highly intelligent life evolved on Earth?
If there were another highly intelligent life evolved on earth, the world would be considerably different. The population might be twice as big yet there would still be limited natural resources. Discrimination may be a huge concern between the two creatures and their dissimilarities could lead to a destructive war. Still, being optimistic, these two forms of intellectual creatures may use their intelligence to cooperate, creating a great civilization.
What if the U.S. and its allies had lost in WWII?
If the United States and its allies had been defeated in WWII, the currently powerful hegemon would be in a different position. The U.S., much as Japan and Germany, may have had to spend considerable time recovering from the war. The greatest nation in this day might be Germany and the universal language may have been German or Japanese. The World Trade Center in New York might have not been rebuilt because terrorists would have targeted Berlin or Tokyo.
If there were another highly intelligent life evolved on earth, the world would be considerably different. The population might be twice as big yet there would still be limited natural resources. Discrimination may be a huge concern between the two creatures and their dissimilarities could lead to a destructive war. Still, being optimistic, these two forms of intellectual creatures may use their intelligence to cooperate, creating a great civilization.
What if the U.S. and its allies had lost in WWII?
If the United States and its allies had been defeated in WWII, the currently powerful hegemon would be in a different position. The U.S., much as Japan and Germany, may have had to spend considerable time recovering from the war. The greatest nation in this day might be Germany and the universal language may have been German or Japanese. The World Trade Center in New York might have not been rebuilt because terrorists would have targeted Berlin or Tokyo.
Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Gattaca (1997)
Discuss the film Gattaca. Do you think the dystopia presented in the film is a realistic possibility in the future? How can mankind avoid such a possibility?
Gattaca is one of the greatest Si-Fi films that I have ever seen. It's a futuristic story about the man with genetic problem, Vincent, who has a dream of working with the space organization among the society of genetic discrimination. By using blood, urine, hair and skin of a cripple named Jerome who is a disable from an accident, he assumes his identity so that he can pass the constant gene tests of the space organization and can be successful working with them. However, after a murder in that organization, investivators detect his real hair, the situation that bring him in a lot of trouble.
The scene in this film may be realistic in the near future. If the discrimination in race, relegion or gender is still going on, the next generation of discrimination may be gene. Many people may do the same as Vincent to get their jobs, or be genetic equality. The blood and urine market would be enlarged and expanded around the world. Therefore, we should be awared of this intimidation and keep the best regard to the next generation to avoid this unpleasurable possibility.
Gattaca is one of the greatest Si-Fi films that I have ever seen. It's a futuristic story about the man with genetic problem, Vincent, who has a dream of working with the space organization among the society of genetic discrimination. By using blood, urine, hair and skin of a cripple named Jerome who is a disable from an accident, he assumes his identity so that he can pass the constant gene tests of the space organization and can be successful working with them. However, after a murder in that organization, investivators detect his real hair, the situation that bring him in a lot of trouble.
The scene in this film may be realistic in the near future. If the discrimination in race, relegion or gender is still going on, the next generation of discrimination may be gene. Many people may do the same as Vincent to get their jobs, or be genetic equality. The blood and urine market would be enlarged and expanded around the world. Therefore, we should be awared of this intimidation and keep the best regard to the next generation to avoid this unpleasurable possibility.
Thursday, April 13, 2006
Conclusion
1.Should We Allow Genetic Enhancement?
In sum, the landscape of international operational policy and United States' domestic policy are currently in a state of flux. The United States has used stopgap measures to prevent one situation from progressing, but it does not have a proactive mechanism in place to stop the private sector from engaging in other research or practices like the New Jersey reproductive healthcare clinic example. That would require an act of Congress, a slow and drawn out legislative process loaded with ethical decisions. Our experiences with eugenics have shown that government should be wary of becoming too involved. On the other hand, leaving germline engineering free to develop in an unregulated market doesn't allow morality or the public interest to affect the trajectory of germline engineering. Ultimately, the United States will have to make a legislative decision in the near future, or risk the private sector dictating the next steps.
What type of paper is it?
Analysis article
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
-Intro - Background
- State arguments - Supporting
- Conclusion
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Exactly
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it call for further research?
No.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Hedging
2.Designer Babies: One Step Closer
These concerns for tomorrow begin with Joshua’s parents today. The proposal is to select purposefully a child solely for his ability to provide a donor source for another child. Creating life primarily to serve someone else, especially when the other life may be rejected and destroyed for the simple reason that it did not meet the parents’ needs, is an action that should always be condemned.
What type of paper is it?
Argumentative article
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of
the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
Intro
Body
Conclusion
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Yes.
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
No.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
No.
Does it call for further research?
No.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Nothing.
3. Predictive genetic testing in young people:
When is it appropriate?
When clinicians are faced with a request to perform predictive genetic testing on a young person, where medical benefit will not be an outcome, there is a default position that has been set. The default position is to refuse testing based on existing guidelines and similar arguments made in the literature. However, there is a small amount of room to move. If the young person can be deemed competent, testing may be considered. Currently empirical evidence is so lacking that we are not capable of either corroborating or refuting such a default position. This position therefore remains a cautionary position and also perhaps a temporary one, given the range of arguments in favour of such testing.
Empirical research must be a priority. Qualitative research is vital as a starting point in understanding the range of impacts that predictive testing may have on young people. Such research must explore both the beneficial and harmful outcomes of testing in order to provide a balanced range of items to research in a more standardized manner in the future. Standardized research into the effects of testing young people must occur prospectively so that measures including anxiety, depression and quality of life can be compared to a base-line score. It would also be beneficial to use the same standardized measures that have already been utilized to study the effects of similar testing in adults. Similar testing is accepted in adults and so the reported effects of predictive genetic testing in adults provide a base-line for comparison. Only in this way can we begin to develop the empirical evidence needed to justify, or refute, current recommendations.
What type of paper is it?
Research paper
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
Introduction
Fact,Evidence
Conclusion
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Yes.
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
Yes, the limitation of current study.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it call for further research?
Absolutely.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Nothing.
4. A Dangerous Precedent for Criminal DNA Databases
California's decision to include innocent people in its criminal database is nothing short of tragic, and will undoubtedly mark a defining moment in the history of DNA database law. At the same time, it provides the impetus for a much-needed national debate that addresses fundamental questions as to who should be included in these databases and why. Unless and until we have that debate, we will continue to slide down a slippery slope of database expansion that might result in greater numbers of "cold hits" but will ultimately undermine our civil liberties and commitment to social justice.
What type of paper is it?
Argumentative paper
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
Yes, the conclusion is the last part of this article.
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Yes.
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
No.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it call for further research?
No.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Nothing.
In sum, the landscape of international operational policy and United States' domestic policy are currently in a state of flux. The United States has used stopgap measures to prevent one situation from progressing, but it does not have a proactive mechanism in place to stop the private sector from engaging in other research or practices like the New Jersey reproductive healthcare clinic example. That would require an act of Congress, a slow and drawn out legislative process loaded with ethical decisions. Our experiences with eugenics have shown that government should be wary of becoming too involved. On the other hand, leaving germline engineering free to develop in an unregulated market doesn't allow morality or the public interest to affect the trajectory of germline engineering. Ultimately, the United States will have to make a legislative decision in the near future, or risk the private sector dictating the next steps.
What type of paper is it?
Analysis article
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
-Intro - Background
- State arguments - Supporting
- Conclusion
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Exactly
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it call for further research?
No.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Hedging
2.Designer Babies: One Step Closer
These concerns for tomorrow begin with Joshua’s parents today. The proposal is to select purposefully a child solely for his ability to provide a donor source for another child. Creating life primarily to serve someone else, especially when the other life may be rejected and destroyed for the simple reason that it did not meet the parents’ needs, is an action that should always be condemned.
What type of paper is it?
Argumentative article
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of
the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
Intro
Body
Conclusion
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Yes.
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
No.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
No.
Does it call for further research?
No.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Nothing.
3. Predictive genetic testing in young people:
When is it appropriate?
When clinicians are faced with a request to perform predictive genetic testing on a young person, where medical benefit will not be an outcome, there is a default position that has been set. The default position is to refuse testing based on existing guidelines and similar arguments made in the literature. However, there is a small amount of room to move. If the young person can be deemed competent, testing may be considered. Currently empirical evidence is so lacking that we are not capable of either corroborating or refuting such a default position. This position therefore remains a cautionary position and also perhaps a temporary one, given the range of arguments in favour of such testing.
Empirical research must be a priority. Qualitative research is vital as a starting point in understanding the range of impacts that predictive testing may have on young people. Such research must explore both the beneficial and harmful outcomes of testing in order to provide a balanced range of items to research in a more standardized manner in the future. Standardized research into the effects of testing young people must occur prospectively so that measures including anxiety, depression and quality of life can be compared to a base-line score. It would also be beneficial to use the same standardized measures that have already been utilized to study the effects of similar testing in adults. Similar testing is accepted in adults and so the reported effects of predictive genetic testing in adults provide a base-line for comparison. Only in this way can we begin to develop the empirical evidence needed to justify, or refute, current recommendations.
What type of paper is it?
Research paper
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
Introduction
Fact,Evidence
Conclusion
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Yes.
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
Yes, the limitation of current study.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it call for further research?
Absolutely.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Nothing.
4. A Dangerous Precedent for Criminal DNA Databases
California's decision to include innocent people in its criminal database is nothing short of tragic, and will undoubtedly mark a defining moment in the history of DNA database law. At the same time, it provides the impetus for a much-needed national debate that addresses fundamental questions as to who should be included in these databases and why. Unless and until we have that debate, we will continue to slide down a slippery slope of database expansion that might result in greater numbers of "cold hits" but will ultimately undermine our civil liberties and commitment to social justice.
What type of paper is it?
Argumentative paper
What's the structure of paper? Where is the conclusion located? Is it separate from sections of the paper discussing the study's findings or implications?
Yes, the conclusion is the last part of this article.
Does the conclusion summarize the paper's argument?
Yes.
Does it discuss the paper's broader significance?
No.
Does it provide a practical application of findings?
No.
Does it offer speculative conclusions? If so, what words and phrases tell the reader that the statement is speculative?
Yes, the last sentence.
Does it call for further research?
No.
Does it use an anecdote or image from the introduction?
No.
What other features or patterns did you notice?
Nothing.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
The IQ Paradox Resolved? A Critical Analysis
The IQ Paradox Resolved? A Critical Analysis
Alexandria K. Cherry
Rochester Institute of Technology
The Flynn effect, or IQ paradox, is simply the rise in mean IQ scores during the 20th century. The paper first goes into some detail on what intelligence is and how it is measured. Then a critical review and analysis of the Flynn effect and the Dickens-Flynn (2001) models is discussed. The basic idea of these models is that environment, with hereditary, influences IQ and IQ in return affects that environment. The conclusion is that the model may be appropriate for explaining the rise in IQ scores in future years but there is still major work that must be done on it.
The IQ paradox is simply the large gains over time in intelligence test scores (Flynn, 1999). The Flynn effect is Flynn's explanation of the rise in mean IQ scores during the 20th century (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). He and his colleagues were the first to notice this rise and it is now fairly accepted that there is one. It has been shown and is universally accepted that word knowledge has risen significantly in the last 20 years by about 5 verbal IQ points (Nettelbeck & Wilson, 2004).
The Dickens-Flynn models try to explain this rise and attribute it to a model incorporating both heritability and environment. The models are recursive models of IQ growth in which phenotypes and their supportive environments are correlated (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). The basic idea is that a person's environment affects their IQ and that IQ affects their environment. This suggests that small environmental influences produce large changes in IQ and that most environmental effects are short-lived. The consequence of this is that improving childhood IQ does not necessarily mean that children will have high IQ when they are adults.
Though the Dickens-Flynn models posses a very interesting explanation and may be proven as acceptable models in the future, there is not enough evidence to suggest that it should be accepted universally as the best explanation for rise in IQ with what is known about it currently. Although the models do an adequate job at explaining the effects of environment on IQ, there are too many unknowns in the theory. The most important criticism may be that this model lacks enough experimental validation (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). There really have not been many recent studies done, so the data it is based on is outdated. The studies that have been done have had problems of their own with keeping basic statistical assumptions true (Mahlberg, 1997). There are also some flaws with the models themselves.
With all of this in mind it is clear that a stance on the subject can be taken. The Dickens-Flynn models while well thought out and apparently noteworthy, have some major flaws. The models as they are can not be accepted for major statistical and theoretical problems. Maybe once they address these problems, they can be accepted in mainstream science as a valid explanation and some day solve the IQ paradox.
Background on IntelligenceIntelligence is defined as a general mental capability that involves the abilities to reason, comprehend complex ideas, plan, solve problems, learn quickly, think abstractly, and learn from experiences (Gottfredson, 1997). There are several issues that most scientists agree on and in 1994 the Wall Street Journal published an article, "Mainstream Science on Intelligence," which covered everything that has been universally accepted thus far, on intelligence and IQ tests. Heritability of intelligence ranges from .4 to .8 on a scale from 0 to 1. Unfortunately, there is little known about what brain processes are used in intelligence so there has been little advancement on being able to manipulate it to raise IQ permanently.
IQ is also known to lie a long a bell curve, or normal curve. The average IQ is 100, where above 130 is giftedness and below 70 is retardation. IQ scores are an accurate measure for everyone regardless of socioeconomic class or race. The averages for these groups are not the same though (Williams & Ceci, 1997).
Intelligence is a broad reflection of the capability to comprehend a person's surroundings and in this form it can be measured (Neisser et al., 1996). The intelligence tests of today measure it very well. IQ tests measures intelligence so well, that these tests are among the most accurate, reliable and valid, in psychology. There are two kinds of intelligence tests, word and numbers, or shapes and designs. The words and numbers test is culture bound and expects certain knowledge of the culture such as vocabulary. On the other hand there is the shape and design test which only requires knowledge of universal concepts such as open vs. closed. Both of these tests measure the same thing though; what is commonly known as the 'g factor.'
There are still many different intelligence tests (Wainwright, Wright, Geffen, Geffen, Luciano, & Martin, 2004). The most current, universal, and widely accepted test is the Wechler's Adult Intelligence Scale Revised (WAIS-R) (Kaufman, 1990). In 1939, the Wechsler-Bellevue From I (W-B I) was created by David Wechsler. This test was redesigned and reformed in 1955 and became the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS). This was also edited in 1989 to become the WAIS-R. This test is now the most widely used and accepted intelligence test. Some newer and not so well known tests are the Woodcock-Johnson Psycho-Educational Battery-R (WJ), the Standford – Binet Intelligence Scale, Form IV, and the Kayfman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test (KAIT).
The Dickens-Flynn ModelsNow there needs to be some explanation of definitions so that the Dickens-Flynn models can be best explained. For this paper the environmental effects that are in the model are those effects that are "short-lived" (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). Most environmental effects decay over time. Attributes such as nutrition or socioeconomic class are the exception to this decay and are long term. These effects, in Flynn's eyes, rival the effects of genes and are not included under his idea of environmental effects. This means that when he argues that IQ affects environment and environment affects IQ, he is referring to the "short-lived" environment.
The Dickens – Flynn models boldly try to explain the IQ paradox and attribute it to a model with both large heritability and environmental effects. The models are recursive models of IQ growth in which phenotypes and their supportive environments are correlated (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). The idea is that environment affects IQ and that IQ affects environment. This suggests that small environmental influences produce large changes in IQ and that most environmental effects are short-lived.
There are many interesting features that the Dickens – Flynn models allow. The first and most important feature is that the models allow for a large environmental effect while still maintaining heritability. This is done by the theory that the environment has an effect on IQ and then in exchange IQ has an effect on that environment. Remember that he is referring to short-lived environment.
The second feature is that the Dickens-Flynn models can account for other phenomena. As long as the trait in question matches itself to an environment, that trait will behave like the models. The other condition for this is that the environment effect can not accumulate over time. Even with this restriction this feature is a good one statistically. It means that in the future other things regarding environmental change can already be explained statistically.
The third feature explained in Flynn's theory is why a child's IQ does not determine the adult's IQ. This is because environmental effects decay over time. In order to have a child's high IQ last, it is suggested that programs should encourage the continuance of replication of lessons long after they are done with the program (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). Basically, when a child leaves a learning program, the parents or guardian should help the child continue with the practices they learned (i.e. organizational skills or study cards).
CriticismThe criticism against the model is in many parts. The first is that there has been no explanation of the rise in IQ universally accepted (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). The rise in IQ, the IQ paradox, is widely accepted and known, but what is causing that rise is in question. There have been several suggestions; Flynn's is just one of them (Uttl & Van Alstine, 2003). Since the publication of The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray in 1994, IQ has been in question by professionals and non professionals alike. So since the IQ paradox was formed there has been some debate on what affects IQ. This in tern creates tension between the different ideas on what has caused the rise in IQ thus providing no clear agreement on the solution of the IQ paradox.
The next criticism is that so far, experiments dealing with the Dickens – Flynn model have either had statistical problems or were unable to replicate (Nettelbeck & Wilson, 2003). This could mostly be due to the fact that Dickens and Flynn used less than current data to obtain their model and is no longer representative of the current population (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). When evaluating whether or not the models would fit outside data there were other problems. Statistically speaking this is very bad.
The results could also be attributed to other factors, which is the third criticism. Most of the other factors are the long term environmental effects. Even though the Dickens – Flynn models allow for long term environmental effects, there may not be a significant enough allowance for change over time. An example of this is nutrition. America's nutrition, and most of the world's, has been improving for the past century. More people are eating more and better than they ever did.
The fourth is that the models do not specify a time line (Loehlin, 2002). Dickens and Flynn neglect to say if the change in IQ occurs during a person's life time or if these models are gauged to a broader population change. There are also no explanations for time gaps. An example of this is: suppose if a person learned to ride a bicycle and did so between the ages of 5 and 10. Then they stopped for 10 years. Would that person have to start over again to learn how to ride the bike or is the intelligence engraved in their mind? Dickens' and Flynn's models would say the person would have to relearn the skill, which does not seem logical.
The last and maybe the most important is that the model allows for large changes in IQ variance where historically there is no real change in variance at all (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). This presents a very big and unwanted statistical blunder. There are two major things in statistics that most be accurate, the mean, and the variance. Since the variance increases over time the effect known as heteroscidasticity will occur. This basically means that at first the correlation between IQ and environment is constant and strong, but as time moves that correlation becomes weaker and eventually will become nonexistent. The conclusion is that the models are bad predictors and the heteroscidasticity must be solved before the models can be recognized as statistically sound.
ConclusionFor the most part, it is universally accepted that there has been a rise in IQ level. The real argument is what is causing this rise. There are arguments that range from a Freudian explanation of collective consciousness to genetic development and adaptation (Mingroni, 2004). The Dickens-Flynn models seem to be one of the most popular explanations thus far but are still a little rocky. From the analysis of the model there really seems to be too many statistical and theoretical blunders made in the development and implementation of the models. The fact that there are major statistical errors made in the models themselves is enough to discredit the theories.
Even though Flynn's theories about the IQ paradox seem appropriate on the surface, there are major theoretical issues. The first is the fact that the theory only allows for IQ to affect short-lived environmental effects. As far as that is concerned, long-term environment can be affected by IQ. An example of this is that IQ is known to correlate with socioeconomic status. Even though long term effects are in the Dickens-Flynn models it does not include it in the interaction between IQ and short-lived environment.
Even with these blunders these models could be the best explanation of the rise in IQ thus far. But like all statistical models it needs more time and studies to validate it and work out all of the kinks. If this model was reconsidered with some changes and major experiments, it may be the best theory to explain the IQ paradox yet.
Peer Commentary
Childhood Exposure to Technology May Increase IQ ScoresAllen J. HolmesRochester Institute of Technology
Flynn studied the IQ scores of separate generations of people. He discovered that, on average, IQ scores raised 3 IQ points over each decade. His studies were extensive. He analyzed data from 20 countries. Some countries displayed rapid intellectual increase of up to 20 IQ points per generation of people. This is a phenomenal increase, which suggests that the Flynn effect has probably not been occurring at all points in human history. It must be a relatively new phenomenon. If we were to assume that the Flynn effect has been occurring throughout human history, the statistical curve would suggest that the average person born only 100 years ago would be considered mentally challenged by today's standards. So what are the causes of the Flynn effect displayed in the Dickens-Flynn model?
The first cause may be food consumption. Western societies are extremely well off in food supply. The majority of people in Western culture have the choice of refusing food. This was not always true and is still not true for many non-Western peoples. Despite this fact, it seems that only severe malnutrition affects the IQ score of an individual.
Perhaps the tendency for couples to have fewer children has a direct effect on the IQ score of children. Parents with fewer children are able to spend more time with each child, thus stimulating their cognitive abilities at an early age, which is obviously beneficial to overall intelligence as well as psychological well-being. It is true that modern families have far less children than families from only 60 years in the past. I believe that this is a definite factor in the increase of IQ.
Another possibility that may increase the average IQ score over generations may be the effects of technology and the demand that technological devices impose on people. Comedians joke about how young children are able to teach their parents how to program a VCR. This is not unreasonable. Children are increasingly exposed to technology, which poses unique problems that may increase abstract problem solving ability and pattern recognition.
Elderly people often have difficulty learning how to use a personal computer, whereas a young person may find computers very intuitive and easy to operate. I have a theory for this. When a person is young, he or she has an increased capacity to learn new things. This has been shown in countless studies about the benefits of head start programs sponsored by government. Perhaps early exposure to technology-oriented interfaces increases a child's ability to adapt and understand complex and abstract problems.
Flynn's studies show that there is a much greater increase in non-verbal problem solving ability than word-oriented test scores. This would support my theory that childhood interface exposure increases pattern recognition and abstract problem solving ability. Complex interfaces are a problem with which only recent generations have had to deal. This would explain the reason for the Flynn effect's recent appearance.
As the everyday use of technology increases, it is reasonable to assume that the average IQ of an individual will increase as well. This will likely level off in the coming 50 years as the increase of incorporation of technology into everyday life reaches its high water mark.
Peer Commentary
The IQ Paradox: Is There an Answer?David J. MoultonRochester Institute of Technology
This paper raised the question of the IQ paradox, which is basically the drastic increase in IQ scores during the 20th century. This work is really just a critique of Flinn's explanation for why intelligence test scores have been increasing and therefore is not an answer to the question of why IQ scores are increasing.
The Dickens-Flynn model that was critiqued had many flaws. These were discussed briefly, but the author could have used more logic and explanation. For example, after briefly researching this model myself, I feel that it does not account for the content of IQ tests. That is, what the IQ tests are actually testing should be looked at. The paper lacks any discussion of this aspect of the problem. What about the fact that we live in the information age, and that a majority of people (in the USA) own or have access to a computer? Games and other special orientated activities can be done using this new technology and may have increased a person's intelligence in this area. The paper says that the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale was last revised in 1989 to become the WAIS-R test. At that time, an average person may not know what a computer was; let alone what can be done with one. Computer technology has advanced at an extreme rate, and it seems as though IQ tests have not been revised enough to account for this. Since the paper says that the WAIS-R test is the most widely used one today, and its last revision was in 1989, an argument can be made from this as to why IQ has been on the rise. A lot has changed since 1989 because of the popularity of the computer. This is an environmental aspect which supports the Dickens-Flynn model, but was not discussed in the paper. As a final note on computer influence, computers have been woven into education today. Many homework and teaching techniques are facilitated by computer technology. Using a computer to do work is fairly abstract and ambiguous, but since people can come into frequent contact with they may get used to doing these abstract activities, which may translate to better performance with abstract questions on an IQ exam.
Another criticism to the Dickens-Flynn model that seems easy to make is that of an environment thousands of years ago. You could assume that our environment is much better than the environment that people lived in that long ago, yet people of that time were very intelligent. For example, the Greek civilization in view of many people was the creator of mathematics and discovered many scientific principals. Surely it requires a high level of intelligence to do these things yet, technology and other environmental factors as we know it did not exist then. How would the model explain that? Methods of education seem to have been left out of a discussion as to why IQ scores are on the rise. Could a rise in IQ be attributed to better teaching methods? Or maybe teachers are just teaching for the test itself because they know what is on it? If that were the case, then IQ test scores would increase, but this may be a false representation of real IQ since these people have been taught to answer test question and may have missed certain concepts that otherwise would have been learned through a normal method of teaching.
One last point that I disagree with is the statement that Americans are eating healthier than ever. Heart disease is still one of the most frequent causes of death in the United States, and frequently there is talk about a labeled "obesity epidemic" that is occurring. Clearly, a majority of American are not making the correct choices about what they eat. Furthermore, studies have shown that vitamins or supplements have had no impact on intelligence itself.
The IQ paradox was clearly defined and is a recognized problem. Clearly there is no clean cut answer to why IQ is increasing, but a discussion drawing from other aspects of the problem would be helpful in letting the reader realize the complexity of the question of the IQ paradox.
Peer Commentary
The Dickens-Flynn Model: A Contradictory ExplanationKyle R. SkottkeRochester Institute of Technology
One of the major areas discussed in this paper is the Dickens-Flynn model. This model is supposed to provide an explanation for the rise in IQ scores during the 20th century. It is seemingly undisputed that intelligence is rising, based on comparing results from intelligence from past decades. Although the Dickens-Flynn model is supposed to help elucidate the mechanism by which intelligence seems to be rising across the board, there appear to be major flaws in the model which makes it unacceptable in my opinion.
One key point that the author makes is that old data was used to help design and test the model. While there might have been several reasons for using older, already gathered data, such as lowering the cost of research and shortening the time required to support their theory, it seems counterproductive in this case. In designing a model which represents a current population and how it is changing currently, it seems inappropriate to use data that are out of date.
I believe that the Dickens-Flynn model does not fully appreciate the importance of our increasing food supply and nutrition. One study (Berkman, Lescano, Gilman, Lopez, & Black, 2002) found that malnourished children, and children suffering from disease causing chronic diarrhea suffer a decreased cognitive ability. In many third world countries, malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases were a big problem, but these are being corrected by modern medicine and through the use of better nutrition, such as golden rice. Although these problems have not been completely wiped out, there has been improvement.
The improvement of childhood nutrition in third world countries, and even improved health in western nations could explain the rise in IQ. I think this is a much more plausible explanation than the short lived environmental effects that the Dickens-Flynn model emphasizes. The long term nature of environmental effects like nutrition would also help to explain why IQ scores have consistently risen, instead of more sporadic results which might be expected with short term effects such as those described in the Dickens-Flynn model.
The author mentions that the data that Dickens and Flynn relied upon was out of date and no longer relevant, which brings into question the relevance of our IQ tests. If it is possible for the data that Dickens and Flynn were using to become obsolete in current times, it also seems possible that revisions could be made to intelligence tests to make them better fit the times. The WAIS-R was revised in 1981, making it over 20 years old and in my view, a prime candidate for further modernization. This is one area that the author does not consider in the paper, but one that I feel is relevant. Although it is important to have some sort of consistency so that validity and reliability can be ensured, I also believe that IQ tests would serve as a better measure if they were updated more frequently to match an ever changing society.
Although the Dickens-Flynn model does incorporate the ability of intelligence and the environment to interact and influence each other, I believe that there are too many statistical flaws and under-representations of important factors to consider this model valid. When designing the model, Dickens and Flynn relied on out-of-date data that does not represent the current situation. In addition to this, agree with others who criticize the model for not placing enough emphasis on the effects of long term environmental factors such as malnutrition in childhood. The focus of the model is instead on short term environmental factors which pale in comparison to malnutrition as far as the effects on cognitive ability. One more criticism I have with this model, in addition to those mentioned in the paper is that the intelligence tests that are in use today are over 20 years old. When the Dickens-Flynn model can be shot down by critics because of old data, I believe that old methods of IQ quantization are also fair game for criticism. I believe that part of the reason that IQ scores have increased is because the overall nutrition of the world has increased, as well as the need for updated tests that would present the same challenge in today's society as the WISC-R did in 1981.
Author Response
Flynn and the IQ ParadoxAlexandria K. CherryRochester Institute of Technology
The IQ Paradox has been a major topic for debate and attention for some time. What is causing this dramatic rise in IQ over the past century has not been fully explained. My paper, "The IQ Paradox Resolved? A Critical Analysis," looked at one theory proposed by Flynn to see how well it held up.
The first peer commentary, from Holmes, entitled "Childhood Exposure to Technology May Increase IQ Scores," is a very interesting take on the Flynn effect but does not really comment directly on my paper. It seems that Moulton, author of "The IQ Paradox: Is There an Answer?" did understand some basic theories of the IQ paradox. There is nothing in it that suggests that this phenomenon has persisted for the entire existence of humankind.
The last commentary, by Skottke, "The Dickens-Flynn Model: A Contradictory Explanation," did an excellent job relating new information with what had previously been stated. He recognized all my problem points and did a beautiful job adding something new and interesting.
Alexandria K. Cherry
Rochester Institute of Technology
The Flynn effect, or IQ paradox, is simply the rise in mean IQ scores during the 20th century. The paper first goes into some detail on what intelligence is and how it is measured. Then a critical review and analysis of the Flynn effect and the Dickens-Flynn (2001) models is discussed. The basic idea of these models is that environment, with hereditary, influences IQ and IQ in return affects that environment. The conclusion is that the model may be appropriate for explaining the rise in IQ scores in future years but there is still major work that must be done on it.
The IQ paradox is simply the large gains over time in intelligence test scores (Flynn, 1999). The Flynn effect is Flynn's explanation of the rise in mean IQ scores during the 20th century (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). He and his colleagues were the first to notice this rise and it is now fairly accepted that there is one. It has been shown and is universally accepted that word knowledge has risen significantly in the last 20 years by about 5 verbal IQ points (Nettelbeck & Wilson, 2004).
The Dickens-Flynn models try to explain this rise and attribute it to a model incorporating both heritability and environment. The models are recursive models of IQ growth in which phenotypes and their supportive environments are correlated (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). The basic idea is that a person's environment affects their IQ and that IQ affects their environment. This suggests that small environmental influences produce large changes in IQ and that most environmental effects are short-lived. The consequence of this is that improving childhood IQ does not necessarily mean that children will have high IQ when they are adults.
Though the Dickens-Flynn models posses a very interesting explanation and may be proven as acceptable models in the future, there is not enough evidence to suggest that it should be accepted universally as the best explanation for rise in IQ with what is known about it currently. Although the models do an adequate job at explaining the effects of environment on IQ, there are too many unknowns in the theory. The most important criticism may be that this model lacks enough experimental validation (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). There really have not been many recent studies done, so the data it is based on is outdated. The studies that have been done have had problems of their own with keeping basic statistical assumptions true (Mahlberg, 1997). There are also some flaws with the models themselves.
With all of this in mind it is clear that a stance on the subject can be taken. The Dickens-Flynn models while well thought out and apparently noteworthy, have some major flaws. The models as they are can not be accepted for major statistical and theoretical problems. Maybe once they address these problems, they can be accepted in mainstream science as a valid explanation and some day solve the IQ paradox.
Background on IntelligenceIntelligence is defined as a general mental capability that involves the abilities to reason, comprehend complex ideas, plan, solve problems, learn quickly, think abstractly, and learn from experiences (Gottfredson, 1997). There are several issues that most scientists agree on and in 1994 the Wall Street Journal published an article, "Mainstream Science on Intelligence," which covered everything that has been universally accepted thus far, on intelligence and IQ tests. Heritability of intelligence ranges from .4 to .8 on a scale from 0 to 1. Unfortunately, there is little known about what brain processes are used in intelligence so there has been little advancement on being able to manipulate it to raise IQ permanently.
IQ is also known to lie a long a bell curve, or normal curve. The average IQ is 100, where above 130 is giftedness and below 70 is retardation. IQ scores are an accurate measure for everyone regardless of socioeconomic class or race. The averages for these groups are not the same though (Williams & Ceci, 1997).
Intelligence is a broad reflection of the capability to comprehend a person's surroundings and in this form it can be measured (Neisser et al., 1996). The intelligence tests of today measure it very well. IQ tests measures intelligence so well, that these tests are among the most accurate, reliable and valid, in psychology. There are two kinds of intelligence tests, word and numbers, or shapes and designs. The words and numbers test is culture bound and expects certain knowledge of the culture such as vocabulary. On the other hand there is the shape and design test which only requires knowledge of universal concepts such as open vs. closed. Both of these tests measure the same thing though; what is commonly known as the 'g factor.'
There are still many different intelligence tests (Wainwright, Wright, Geffen, Geffen, Luciano, & Martin, 2004). The most current, universal, and widely accepted test is the Wechler's Adult Intelligence Scale Revised (WAIS-R) (Kaufman, 1990). In 1939, the Wechsler-Bellevue From I (W-B I) was created by David Wechsler. This test was redesigned and reformed in 1955 and became the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS). This was also edited in 1989 to become the WAIS-R. This test is now the most widely used and accepted intelligence test. Some newer and not so well known tests are the Woodcock-Johnson Psycho-Educational Battery-R (WJ), the Standford – Binet Intelligence Scale, Form IV, and the Kayfman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test (KAIT).
The Dickens-Flynn ModelsNow there needs to be some explanation of definitions so that the Dickens-Flynn models can be best explained. For this paper the environmental effects that are in the model are those effects that are "short-lived" (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). Most environmental effects decay over time. Attributes such as nutrition or socioeconomic class are the exception to this decay and are long term. These effects, in Flynn's eyes, rival the effects of genes and are not included under his idea of environmental effects. This means that when he argues that IQ affects environment and environment affects IQ, he is referring to the "short-lived" environment.
The Dickens – Flynn models boldly try to explain the IQ paradox and attribute it to a model with both large heritability and environmental effects. The models are recursive models of IQ growth in which phenotypes and their supportive environments are correlated (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). The idea is that environment affects IQ and that IQ affects environment. This suggests that small environmental influences produce large changes in IQ and that most environmental effects are short-lived.
There are many interesting features that the Dickens – Flynn models allow. The first and most important feature is that the models allow for a large environmental effect while still maintaining heritability. This is done by the theory that the environment has an effect on IQ and then in exchange IQ has an effect on that environment. Remember that he is referring to short-lived environment.
The second feature is that the Dickens-Flynn models can account for other phenomena. As long as the trait in question matches itself to an environment, that trait will behave like the models. The other condition for this is that the environment effect can not accumulate over time. Even with this restriction this feature is a good one statistically. It means that in the future other things regarding environmental change can already be explained statistically.
The third feature explained in Flynn's theory is why a child's IQ does not determine the adult's IQ. This is because environmental effects decay over time. In order to have a child's high IQ last, it is suggested that programs should encourage the continuance of replication of lessons long after they are done with the program (Dickens & Flynn, 2001). Basically, when a child leaves a learning program, the parents or guardian should help the child continue with the practices they learned (i.e. organizational skills or study cards).
CriticismThe criticism against the model is in many parts. The first is that there has been no explanation of the rise in IQ universally accepted (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). The rise in IQ, the IQ paradox, is widely accepted and known, but what is causing that rise is in question. There have been several suggestions; Flynn's is just one of them (Uttl & Van Alstine, 2003). Since the publication of The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray in 1994, IQ has been in question by professionals and non professionals alike. So since the IQ paradox was formed there has been some debate on what affects IQ. This in tern creates tension between the different ideas on what has caused the rise in IQ thus providing no clear agreement on the solution of the IQ paradox.
The next criticism is that so far, experiments dealing with the Dickens – Flynn model have either had statistical problems or were unable to replicate (Nettelbeck & Wilson, 2003). This could mostly be due to the fact that Dickens and Flynn used less than current data to obtain their model and is no longer representative of the current population (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). When evaluating whether or not the models would fit outside data there were other problems. Statistically speaking this is very bad.
The results could also be attributed to other factors, which is the third criticism. Most of the other factors are the long term environmental effects. Even though the Dickens – Flynn models allow for long term environmental effects, there may not be a significant enough allowance for change over time. An example of this is nutrition. America's nutrition, and most of the world's, has been improving for the past century. More people are eating more and better than they ever did.
The fourth is that the models do not specify a time line (Loehlin, 2002). Dickens and Flynn neglect to say if the change in IQ occurs during a person's life time or if these models are gauged to a broader population change. There are also no explanations for time gaps. An example of this is: suppose if a person learned to ride a bicycle and did so between the ages of 5 and 10. Then they stopped for 10 years. Would that person have to start over again to learn how to ride the bike or is the intelligence engraved in their mind? Dickens' and Flynn's models would say the person would have to relearn the skill, which does not seem logical.
The last and maybe the most important is that the model allows for large changes in IQ variance where historically there is no real change in variance at all (Rowe & Rodgers, 2002). This presents a very big and unwanted statistical blunder. There are two major things in statistics that most be accurate, the mean, and the variance. Since the variance increases over time the effect known as heteroscidasticity will occur. This basically means that at first the correlation between IQ and environment is constant and strong, but as time moves that correlation becomes weaker and eventually will become nonexistent. The conclusion is that the models are bad predictors and the heteroscidasticity must be solved before the models can be recognized as statistically sound.
ConclusionFor the most part, it is universally accepted that there has been a rise in IQ level. The real argument is what is causing this rise. There are arguments that range from a Freudian explanation of collective consciousness to genetic development and adaptation (Mingroni, 2004). The Dickens-Flynn models seem to be one of the most popular explanations thus far but are still a little rocky. From the analysis of the model there really seems to be too many statistical and theoretical blunders made in the development and implementation of the models. The fact that there are major statistical errors made in the models themselves is enough to discredit the theories.
Even though Flynn's theories about the IQ paradox seem appropriate on the surface, there are major theoretical issues. The first is the fact that the theory only allows for IQ to affect short-lived environmental effects. As far as that is concerned, long-term environment can be affected by IQ. An example of this is that IQ is known to correlate with socioeconomic status. Even though long term effects are in the Dickens-Flynn models it does not include it in the interaction between IQ and short-lived environment.
Even with these blunders these models could be the best explanation of the rise in IQ thus far. But like all statistical models it needs more time and studies to validate it and work out all of the kinks. If this model was reconsidered with some changes and major experiments, it may be the best theory to explain the IQ paradox yet.
Peer Commentary
Childhood Exposure to Technology May Increase IQ ScoresAllen J. HolmesRochester Institute of Technology
Flynn studied the IQ scores of separate generations of people. He discovered that, on average, IQ scores raised 3 IQ points over each decade. His studies were extensive. He analyzed data from 20 countries. Some countries displayed rapid intellectual increase of up to 20 IQ points per generation of people. This is a phenomenal increase, which suggests that the Flynn effect has probably not been occurring at all points in human history. It must be a relatively new phenomenon. If we were to assume that the Flynn effect has been occurring throughout human history, the statistical curve would suggest that the average person born only 100 years ago would be considered mentally challenged by today's standards. So what are the causes of the Flynn effect displayed in the Dickens-Flynn model?
The first cause may be food consumption. Western societies are extremely well off in food supply. The majority of people in Western culture have the choice of refusing food. This was not always true and is still not true for many non-Western peoples. Despite this fact, it seems that only severe malnutrition affects the IQ score of an individual.
Perhaps the tendency for couples to have fewer children has a direct effect on the IQ score of children. Parents with fewer children are able to spend more time with each child, thus stimulating their cognitive abilities at an early age, which is obviously beneficial to overall intelligence as well as psychological well-being. It is true that modern families have far less children than families from only 60 years in the past. I believe that this is a definite factor in the increase of IQ.
Another possibility that may increase the average IQ score over generations may be the effects of technology and the demand that technological devices impose on people. Comedians joke about how young children are able to teach their parents how to program a VCR. This is not unreasonable. Children are increasingly exposed to technology, which poses unique problems that may increase abstract problem solving ability and pattern recognition.
Elderly people often have difficulty learning how to use a personal computer, whereas a young person may find computers very intuitive and easy to operate. I have a theory for this. When a person is young, he or she has an increased capacity to learn new things. This has been shown in countless studies about the benefits of head start programs sponsored by government. Perhaps early exposure to technology-oriented interfaces increases a child's ability to adapt and understand complex and abstract problems.
Flynn's studies show that there is a much greater increase in non-verbal problem solving ability than word-oriented test scores. This would support my theory that childhood interface exposure increases pattern recognition and abstract problem solving ability. Complex interfaces are a problem with which only recent generations have had to deal. This would explain the reason for the Flynn effect's recent appearance.
As the everyday use of technology increases, it is reasonable to assume that the average IQ of an individual will increase as well. This will likely level off in the coming 50 years as the increase of incorporation of technology into everyday life reaches its high water mark.
Peer Commentary
The IQ Paradox: Is There an Answer?David J. MoultonRochester Institute of Technology
This paper raised the question of the IQ paradox, which is basically the drastic increase in IQ scores during the 20th century. This work is really just a critique of Flinn's explanation for why intelligence test scores have been increasing and therefore is not an answer to the question of why IQ scores are increasing.
The Dickens-Flynn model that was critiqued had many flaws. These were discussed briefly, but the author could have used more logic and explanation. For example, after briefly researching this model myself, I feel that it does not account for the content of IQ tests. That is, what the IQ tests are actually testing should be looked at. The paper lacks any discussion of this aspect of the problem. What about the fact that we live in the information age, and that a majority of people (in the USA) own or have access to a computer? Games and other special orientated activities can be done using this new technology and may have increased a person's intelligence in this area. The paper says that the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale was last revised in 1989 to become the WAIS-R test. At that time, an average person may not know what a computer was; let alone what can be done with one. Computer technology has advanced at an extreme rate, and it seems as though IQ tests have not been revised enough to account for this. Since the paper says that the WAIS-R test is the most widely used one today, and its last revision was in 1989, an argument can be made from this as to why IQ has been on the rise. A lot has changed since 1989 because of the popularity of the computer. This is an environmental aspect which supports the Dickens-Flynn model, but was not discussed in the paper. As a final note on computer influence, computers have been woven into education today. Many homework and teaching techniques are facilitated by computer technology. Using a computer to do work is fairly abstract and ambiguous, but since people can come into frequent contact with they may get used to doing these abstract activities, which may translate to better performance with abstract questions on an IQ exam.
Another criticism to the Dickens-Flynn model that seems easy to make is that of an environment thousands of years ago. You could assume that our environment is much better than the environment that people lived in that long ago, yet people of that time were very intelligent. For example, the Greek civilization in view of many people was the creator of mathematics and discovered many scientific principals. Surely it requires a high level of intelligence to do these things yet, technology and other environmental factors as we know it did not exist then. How would the model explain that? Methods of education seem to have been left out of a discussion as to why IQ scores are on the rise. Could a rise in IQ be attributed to better teaching methods? Or maybe teachers are just teaching for the test itself because they know what is on it? If that were the case, then IQ test scores would increase, but this may be a false representation of real IQ since these people have been taught to answer test question and may have missed certain concepts that otherwise would have been learned through a normal method of teaching.
One last point that I disagree with is the statement that Americans are eating healthier than ever. Heart disease is still one of the most frequent causes of death in the United States, and frequently there is talk about a labeled "obesity epidemic" that is occurring. Clearly, a majority of American are not making the correct choices about what they eat. Furthermore, studies have shown that vitamins or supplements have had no impact on intelligence itself.
The IQ paradox was clearly defined and is a recognized problem. Clearly there is no clean cut answer to why IQ is increasing, but a discussion drawing from other aspects of the problem would be helpful in letting the reader realize the complexity of the question of the IQ paradox.
Peer Commentary
The Dickens-Flynn Model: A Contradictory ExplanationKyle R. SkottkeRochester Institute of Technology
One of the major areas discussed in this paper is the Dickens-Flynn model. This model is supposed to provide an explanation for the rise in IQ scores during the 20th century. It is seemingly undisputed that intelligence is rising, based on comparing results from intelligence from past decades. Although the Dickens-Flynn model is supposed to help elucidate the mechanism by which intelligence seems to be rising across the board, there appear to be major flaws in the model which makes it unacceptable in my opinion.
One key point that the author makes is that old data was used to help design and test the model. While there might have been several reasons for using older, already gathered data, such as lowering the cost of research and shortening the time required to support their theory, it seems counterproductive in this case. In designing a model which represents a current population and how it is changing currently, it seems inappropriate to use data that are out of date.
I believe that the Dickens-Flynn model does not fully appreciate the importance of our increasing food supply and nutrition. One study (Berkman, Lescano, Gilman, Lopez, & Black, 2002) found that malnourished children, and children suffering from disease causing chronic diarrhea suffer a decreased cognitive ability. In many third world countries, malnutrition and diarrhoeal diseases were a big problem, but these are being corrected by modern medicine and through the use of better nutrition, such as golden rice. Although these problems have not been completely wiped out, there has been improvement.
The improvement of childhood nutrition in third world countries, and even improved health in western nations could explain the rise in IQ. I think this is a much more plausible explanation than the short lived environmental effects that the Dickens-Flynn model emphasizes. The long term nature of environmental effects like nutrition would also help to explain why IQ scores have consistently risen, instead of more sporadic results which might be expected with short term effects such as those described in the Dickens-Flynn model.
The author mentions that the data that Dickens and Flynn relied upon was out of date and no longer relevant, which brings into question the relevance of our IQ tests. If it is possible for the data that Dickens and Flynn were using to become obsolete in current times, it also seems possible that revisions could be made to intelligence tests to make them better fit the times. The WAIS-R was revised in 1981, making it over 20 years old and in my view, a prime candidate for further modernization. This is one area that the author does not consider in the paper, but one that I feel is relevant. Although it is important to have some sort of consistency so that validity and reliability can be ensured, I also believe that IQ tests would serve as a better measure if they were updated more frequently to match an ever changing society.
Although the Dickens-Flynn model does incorporate the ability of intelligence and the environment to interact and influence each other, I believe that there are too many statistical flaws and under-representations of important factors to consider this model valid. When designing the model, Dickens and Flynn relied on out-of-date data that does not represent the current situation. In addition to this, agree with others who criticize the model for not placing enough emphasis on the effects of long term environmental factors such as malnutrition in childhood. The focus of the model is instead on short term environmental factors which pale in comparison to malnutrition as far as the effects on cognitive ability. One more criticism I have with this model, in addition to those mentioned in the paper is that the intelligence tests that are in use today are over 20 years old. When the Dickens-Flynn model can be shot down by critics because of old data, I believe that old methods of IQ quantization are also fair game for criticism. I believe that part of the reason that IQ scores have increased is because the overall nutrition of the world has increased, as well as the need for updated tests that would present the same challenge in today's society as the WISC-R did in 1981.
Author Response
Flynn and the IQ ParadoxAlexandria K. CherryRochester Institute of Technology
The IQ Paradox has been a major topic for debate and attention for some time. What is causing this dramatic rise in IQ over the past century has not been fully explained. My paper, "The IQ Paradox Resolved? A Critical Analysis," looked at one theory proposed by Flynn to see how well it held up.
The first peer commentary, from Holmes, entitled "Childhood Exposure to Technology May Increase IQ Scores," is a very interesting take on the Flynn effect but does not really comment directly on my paper. It seems that Moulton, author of "The IQ Paradox: Is There an Answer?" did understand some basic theories of the IQ paradox. There is nothing in it that suggests that this phenomenon has persisted for the entire existence of humankind.
The last commentary, by Skottke, "The Dickens-Flynn Model: A Contradictory Explanation," did an excellent job relating new information with what had previously been stated. He recognized all my problem points and did a beautiful job adding something new and interesting.
Memo - Ways that people can control their addiction to television viewing
To : Dr. Tim, Professor of Communications
From : Suppalerk A., Student Research Assistant
Re : Ways that people can control their "addiction" to television viewing
Date : 11 April 2006
After TVs were created and TV-programs have been developed for more varieties, nowadays if we were asked about time-spending in a day, we probably find that watching TV may comes in the first rank. If all of the programs showing on TV are useful, we should keep watching them. Nevertheless, the programs that addict people are mostly wasteful and may lead to some negative results such as damaged vision, obesity or laziness. The ways that can control TV-addiction were found in the following:
1. Spending more time in other activities
Playing sports or hobbies: Finding the game that we like to play. There are plenty of benefits from playing the games than watching TV. We may have new companions, gain body strength, or develop our planning strategies by engaging in beloved sports or hobbies.
Reading books: A lot of valuable books are waiting for us to discover. Find an interesting book and finish it. No one doesn't recommend reading books.
Having pets: Pets may reduce our time on TV. We may go jogging with our dogs or playing with lovely cats.
2. Manage time schedule appropriately
Watching TV may not be counted as TV addiction if we manage time appropriately. Also, all of TV programs aren't useful as well as aren't all wasteful. Therefore, in appropriate daily schedule, pick some useful channels while watching TV.
From : Suppalerk A., Student Research Assistant
Re : Ways that people can control their "addiction" to television viewing
Date : 11 April 2006
After TVs were created and TV-programs have been developed for more varieties, nowadays if we were asked about time-spending in a day, we probably find that watching TV may comes in the first rank. If all of the programs showing on TV are useful, we should keep watching them. Nevertheless, the programs that addict people are mostly wasteful and may lead to some negative results such as damaged vision, obesity or laziness. The ways that can control TV-addiction were found in the following:
1. Spending more time in other activities
Playing sports or hobbies: Finding the game that we like to play. There are plenty of benefits from playing the games than watching TV. We may have new companions, gain body strength, or develop our planning strategies by engaging in beloved sports or hobbies.
Reading books: A lot of valuable books are waiting for us to discover. Find an interesting book and finish it. No one doesn't recommend reading books.
Having pets: Pets may reduce our time on TV. We may go jogging with our dogs or playing with lovely cats.
2. Manage time schedule appropriately
Watching TV may not be counted as TV addiction if we manage time appropriately. Also, all of TV programs aren't useful as well as aren't all wasteful. Therefore, in appropriate daily schedule, pick some useful channels while watching TV.
My friend - How to reduce TV-watching
Dear David,
It has been a long time that we didn't go hanging out after graduation. What are you doing now? Just staying home and continuously watching TV?
You know what? I have never thought that it's a big problem until you need my advice. There are pretty simply solutions. Just spending time with other activities;
1. Find a job - this's the way we should do after graduation.
2. Work out - many kinds of sports you can enjoy. Not only does it reduce the time you watch tedious programs, there will be a lot of benefits you will gain.
3. Flirt some girls - this will reduce your concentration on that repetitious programs.
4. Have some pets - a dog may be your new best friend instead of TV.
I hope one of my solutions will be worthy to you. If you need more advice, just give me a call.
Take care,
PK
It has been a long time that we didn't go hanging out after graduation. What are you doing now? Just staying home and continuously watching TV?
You know what? I have never thought that it's a big problem until you need my advice. There are pretty simply solutions. Just spending time with other activities;
1. Find a job - this's the way we should do after graduation.
2. Work out - many kinds of sports you can enjoy. Not only does it reduce the time you watch tedious programs, there will be a lot of benefits you will gain.
3. Flirt some girls - this will reduce your concentration on that repetitious programs.
4. Have some pets - a dog may be your new best friend instead of TV.
I hope one of my solutions will be worthy to you. If you need more advice, just give me a call.
Take care,
PK
Thursday, April 06, 2006
Introduction
Write a short description of the following:
Purposes that the introduction accomplishes. In particular, which "moves" are used in each introduction.
What words and phrases are used to introduce these moves?
- Raise a Question for move 2
- However, ..... - Move 2
Identify verbs used to describe Move 3 (e.g., “This paper will describe,” or “This paper will analyze.”)
- The aim of this study is to analyze.... and investigate....
- In this paper, we consider...
- This paper contributes to a comprehensive approach....
As part of Move 3, does the paper discuss its methodology, approach, or theoretical framework.
- Exactly for example in "Finance VS Growth", they use many frameworks.
Korea’s Information and Technology Boom and Transformation After the Crisis
I. Introduction
In 1998 the Korean economy appeared to be hopeless in the aftermath of the financial crisis. When in October 1998 the Ministry of Finance and Economy (MOFE) predicted 2 percent growth for the next year, criticism of government’s rosy prediction rained down. At the time, most private research institutions predicted negative economic growth for the next year. Even at the end of 1998, most predictions were for less than 1 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at best. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a 1 percent contraction in its report, World Economic Outlook, and the World Bank predicted 1 percent growth in its Global Economic Prospects, each published in December 1998. Private predictions remained between –1.8 and 1.0 percent growth for 1999.
The composite index of leading indicators, which predicts economic conditions several months in
advance, made negative economic growth seem inevitable; most variables in the composite index recorded dramatic declines compared with the previous year. For example, the producers’ shipment index, which predic ts durable consumption about 6 months in advance, fell from –20.3 to –26.5 percent. The floor area indicated in building construction permits foretold a decline in construction investment from –63.4 to –72.1 percent, and the industrial production index for intermediate construction fell from – 30.2 to –32.7 percent between July and October 1998. Predictions based on econometric models, eventhose using the optimistic assumption of huge inventory adjustments, suggested a maximum of 1 percent growth.
One year later, however, the picture was very different. In fact, in 1999 the GDP growth rate registered a 10.9 percent increase, compared with negative 6.7 percent in 1998. The next year, 2000, saw 9.3 percent growth – two strong years in succession. It had been impossible to predict such strong growth and rapid recovery from the economic data in 1998. In view of the unpredictability of the recovery, some have labeled it another “miracle.” The key to Korea’s miracle recovery was the emergence of a new industry based on information and communication technology (ICT), an area that had not been significant in national accounting previously. The year 1998 and the first part of 1999 had been the worst in terms of unemployment and bankruptcy in the modern history of Korea’s economy. Business
activity had all but come to a halt, unemployment rates were high, a series of bankruptcies emerged in the wake of a credit crunch, and so on. The miracle recovery raised a number of questions including the biggest puzzle of all -- why the new ICT industry began to emerge, to put forth its blossoms, in this very dark economic period.
The aim of this study is to analyze the progress of Korea’s recovery during 1999 and 2000 and
investigates the momentum of the rapid development of the new ICT industry. Not only the economic factors that spurred the recovery, but also the philosophical and cultural factors that influenced Korea’s recovery from its worst economic conditions in modern times are considered. Non-economic factors are important to a complete analysis of the recovery progress because the “miracle” cannot be explained by economic factors alone. Section II examines the progress of recovery by tracing the economic situation from 1998 to 2000, and Section III describes the rapid development of information and communication technology and the boom of venture firms. Section IV reviews the momentum of the emerging new industry from the traditional economic viewpoint, and Section V introduces additional cultural factors to explain Korea’s rapid recovery through the development of the ICT industry. Conclusions are presented in Section VI.
Finance Causes Growth: Can We Be So Sure?
1. Introduction
In recent years, there has been a revival of interest in the role played by financial development in longterm economic growth. A host of studies carried out over the past decade, beginning with King and Levine (1993), have found evidence in favour of the Schumpeterian view that a well-developed financial system promotes growth by channelling credit to its most productive uses. This has now become the conventional wisdom. In this paper, we consider whether the empirical foundations upon which the conventional wisdom has been built are sufficiently secure to allow us to draw policy-oriented insight. If one is to base policy on this body of work, it is essential that we have a clear understanding of how, when and under what circumstances, finance will affect economic growth. Closer scrutiny of some of the most important empirical work on this topic, however, reveals that the relationship between financial development and growth may be more complex than is implied by the approach generally adopted in the literature.
Our interest is in establishing how well the empirical literature captures the theoretical link between finance and growth. Using the data and methodologies adopted in the influential papers of Rajan and Zingales (1998a) and Levine and Zervos (1998), we undertake some additional econometric analysis in order to shed light on two key issues. First, motivated by the early literature on finance and development (Gershchenkron, 1962) as well as recent theoretical (Boyd and Smith, 1998) and empirical contributions (Rousseau and Wachtel, 1998; Carlin and Mayer, 2003), we examine whether the estimated effect of finance upon growth is stable across countries at different stages of economic development. In this regard we ask whether it might, in fact, be inappropriate to pool countries with different levels of industrialisation. Second, we examine the extent to which the methodologies employed successfully isolate the impact of financial development, recognising that there may be a host of correlated institutional, legal, cultural and political factors that have an independent impact upon growth.
Our investigation reveals that the evidence in favour of a linkage between finance and growth is
strongest for countries at an earlier stage in their economic development, with bank finance of particular importance. For measures of stock market and broad financial development, however, the estimated linkage appears to be highly influenced by just a few countries; namely those East Asian economies in the peak-growth phase of their early industrialisation during the periods covered by these studies. We conclude that, for such countries, it is difficult to separate the role of finance from other potentially correlated institutional factors.
Our focus on the work of Rajan and Zingales (1998a) and Levine and Zervos (1998) reflects the fact that these authors have successfully steered the empirical literature towards the adoption of more sophisticated measures of financial development. Levine and Zervos (1998) took us beyond the traditional focus on the intermediation sector, capturing, in their specifications, the independent effects of both banks and stock markets upon growth. Furthermore, recognising that measures of the size of the financial sector cannot capture the efficiency with which financial institutions and markets carry out their functions, the authors introduced a number of innovative measures, such as stock market turnover, as a proxy for stock market liquidity. Rajan and Zingales (1998a) also took a broader view of financial development, introducing accounting standards as an indicator of a country’s financial sophistication.
The empirical work in this paper, therefore, draws upon the domestic credit and accounting standards measures adopted by Rajan and Zingales (1998a), and the bank credit, stock market capitalisation and stock market liquidity measures employed by Levine and Zervos (1998).
The paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, we review the key contributions to the empirical
literature, focussing on how authors have sought to measure financial development and establish causality. In Section 3, we outline some stylised facts, going on in Sections 4 and 5 to present the results from our additional econometric tests. We employ Rajan and Zingales’ (1998a) dataset and methodology in Sections 4.1 and 4.2 to test first for the stability of the results across OECD and non-OECD samples, and then for omitted variables. We then adopt Levine and Zervos’ (1998) data and methodology in Sections 5.1 and 5.2 to explore the robustness of the role of stock market development. Section 6 concludes. Details of data and sources are provided in the Data Appendix.
Toward a Dual Education System: Poverty Reduction in Bolivia
I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Despite the implementation of a series of stabilisation and structural
adjustment measures since 1985, Bolivia’s poverty level has not changed as much
as expected by the advocates of these reforms. To this date, Bolivia remains one
of the poorest countries in Latin America. The limited success of development
strategies on efficiency as well as on equity grounds is no exception among the
countries that followed the recommendations of the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the 1980s and 1990s. The tendency of the
Washington institutions to promote rapid market liberalisation as the panacea of
economic development seemingly irrespective of a country’s specific
circumstances has become increasingly under attack. “Give them an inch of
nuance, and they’ll take a mile of the status quo” (Kanbur and Vines, 2000, p.
101) seems to be an appropriate description of their stance and attitude. By the
mid-1990s, they were regarded by the public in many developing countries as an
enemy of the poor (Kanbur and Vines, 2000, pp. 100-101). Liberalisation was
considered as the basis of growth, and growth combined with the provision of
basic educational, health, and social services would reduce poverty. The
dissatisfaction with the results of the free-market approach, in particular in the
aftermath of the East Asian crisis, has led to a more comprehensive
understanding of poverty and poverty reduction measures in recent years. In
particular, institutional aspects are stressed more frequently, going beyond the
state-versus-market dichotomy. The structural characteristics of developing
economies are recognised and emphasised (for example Meier, 2000, p. 39). On
an operational level, an example for this new thinking are the Poverty Reduction
Strategy Papers (PRSPs) demanded from the participants in the Highly Indebted
Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, e.g. from Bolivia.
This paper contributes to a comprehensive approach to poverty reduction,
which takes into account the structural conditions prevailing in the labour market
of a developing economy. The labour market transmits technological and
structural changes and policies into employment and incomes. In contrast to rural
areas, people in urban economies rely on market exchanges and, consequently,
on cash income. The poor generate cash income almost exclusively on the labour
market. Thus, the understanding of the labour market is crucial to the analysis of
urban poverty. The central policy themes in urban poverty reduction, such as
education, social protection, and microenterprise development, are closely related
to the labour market. Thus, a labour market perspective yields important insights
for comprehensive poverty reduction strategies. This contrasts with the view of
many analysts, who still address labour market issues under the label of
liberalisation and flexibilisation (Guasch, 1999).
Segmentation and the presence of an informal sector have often been
referred to as the principal characteristics of the labour market in developing
countries. In the second chapter, a labour market view is developed that
emphasises structural features and constraints. The guiding ideas will be
informality as a descriptive and segmentation as an analytical concept.
Different approaches to labour markets in developing economies are reviewed.
Segmentation is found to be driven by divergent demand-side developments
combined with limited labour market mobility. In segmented labour markets,
which exhibit an important degree of informality, vicious circles will be
identified that keep people trapped in jobs with low incomes and, therefore, in
poverty. The third chapter analyses the structural characteristics and the
functioning of the Bolivian labour market. To this end, the degree of informality
in the labour market is explored. Empirical studies are reviewed that support the
hypothesis of a segmented labour market with vicious poverty circles. The policy
implications for poverty reduction efforts in Bolivia are formulated in the fourth
chapter. The last chapter concludes with an outlook with regard to future
theoretical and empirical research, and policy formulation.
Purposes that the introduction accomplishes. In particular, which "moves" are used in each introduction.
What words and phrases are used to introduce these moves?
- Raise a Question for move 2
- However, ..... - Move 2
Identify verbs used to describe Move 3 (e.g., “This paper will describe,” or “This paper will analyze.”)
- The aim of this study is to analyze.... and investigate....
- In this paper, we consider...
- This paper contributes to a comprehensive approach....
As part of Move 3, does the paper discuss its methodology, approach, or theoretical framework.
- Exactly for example in "Finance VS Growth", they use many frameworks.
Korea’s Information and Technology Boom and Transformation After the Crisis
I. Introduction
In 1998 the Korean economy appeared to be hopeless in the aftermath of the financial crisis. When in October 1998 the Ministry of Finance and Economy (MOFE) predicted 2 percent growth for the next year, criticism of government’s rosy prediction rained down. At the time, most private research institutions predicted negative economic growth for the next year. Even at the end of 1998, most predictions were for less than 1 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) at best. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a 1 percent contraction in its report, World Economic Outlook, and the World Bank predicted 1 percent growth in its Global Economic Prospects, each published in December 1998. Private predictions remained between –1.8 and 1.0 percent growth for 1999.
The composite index of leading indicators, which predicts economic conditions several months in
advance, made negative economic growth seem inevitable; most variables in the composite index recorded dramatic declines compared with the previous year. For example, the producers’ shipment index, which predic ts durable consumption about 6 months in advance, fell from –20.3 to –26.5 percent. The floor area indicated in building construction permits foretold a decline in construction investment from –63.4 to –72.1 percent, and the industrial production index for intermediate construction fell from – 30.2 to –32.7 percent between July and October 1998. Predictions based on econometric models, eventhose using the optimistic assumption of huge inventory adjustments, suggested a maximum of 1 percent growth.
One year later, however, the picture was very different. In fact, in 1999 the GDP growth rate registered a 10.9 percent increase, compared with negative 6.7 percent in 1998. The next year, 2000, saw 9.3 percent growth – two strong years in succession. It had been impossible to predict such strong growth and rapid recovery from the economic data in 1998. In view of the unpredictability of the recovery, some have labeled it another “miracle.” The key to Korea’s miracle recovery was the emergence of a new industry based on information and communication technology (ICT), an area that had not been significant in national accounting previously. The year 1998 and the first part of 1999 had been the worst in terms of unemployment and bankruptcy in the modern history of Korea’s economy. Business
activity had all but come to a halt, unemployment rates were high, a series of bankruptcies emerged in the wake of a credit crunch, and so on. The miracle recovery raised a number of questions including the biggest puzzle of all -- why the new ICT industry began to emerge, to put forth its blossoms, in this very dark economic period.
The aim of this study is to analyze the progress of Korea’s recovery during 1999 and 2000 and
investigates the momentum of the rapid development of the new ICT industry. Not only the economic factors that spurred the recovery, but also the philosophical and cultural factors that influenced Korea’s recovery from its worst economic conditions in modern times are considered. Non-economic factors are important to a complete analysis of the recovery progress because the “miracle” cannot be explained by economic factors alone. Section II examines the progress of recovery by tracing the economic situation from 1998 to 2000, and Section III describes the rapid development of information and communication technology and the boom of venture firms. Section IV reviews the momentum of the emerging new industry from the traditional economic viewpoint, and Section V introduces additional cultural factors to explain Korea’s rapid recovery through the development of the ICT industry. Conclusions are presented in Section VI.
Finance Causes Growth: Can We Be So Sure?
1. Introduction
In recent years, there has been a revival of interest in the role played by financial development in longterm economic growth. A host of studies carried out over the past decade, beginning with King and Levine (1993), have found evidence in favour of the Schumpeterian view that a well-developed financial system promotes growth by channelling credit to its most productive uses. This has now become the conventional wisdom. In this paper, we consider whether the empirical foundations upon which the conventional wisdom has been built are sufficiently secure to allow us to draw policy-oriented insight. If one is to base policy on this body of work, it is essential that we have a clear understanding of how, when and under what circumstances, finance will affect economic growth. Closer scrutiny of some of the most important empirical work on this topic, however, reveals that the relationship between financial development and growth may be more complex than is implied by the approach generally adopted in the literature.
Our interest is in establishing how well the empirical literature captures the theoretical link between finance and growth. Using the data and methodologies adopted in the influential papers of Rajan and Zingales (1998a) and Levine and Zervos (1998), we undertake some additional econometric analysis in order to shed light on two key issues. First, motivated by the early literature on finance and development (Gershchenkron, 1962) as well as recent theoretical (Boyd and Smith, 1998) and empirical contributions (Rousseau and Wachtel, 1998; Carlin and Mayer, 2003), we examine whether the estimated effect of finance upon growth is stable across countries at different stages of economic development. In this regard we ask whether it might, in fact, be inappropriate to pool countries with different levels of industrialisation. Second, we examine the extent to which the methodologies employed successfully isolate the impact of financial development, recognising that there may be a host of correlated institutional, legal, cultural and political factors that have an independent impact upon growth.
Our investigation reveals that the evidence in favour of a linkage between finance and growth is
strongest for countries at an earlier stage in their economic development, with bank finance of particular importance. For measures of stock market and broad financial development, however, the estimated linkage appears to be highly influenced by just a few countries; namely those East Asian economies in the peak-growth phase of their early industrialisation during the periods covered by these studies. We conclude that, for such countries, it is difficult to separate the role of finance from other potentially correlated institutional factors.
Our focus on the work of Rajan and Zingales (1998a) and Levine and Zervos (1998) reflects the fact that these authors have successfully steered the empirical literature towards the adoption of more sophisticated measures of financial development. Levine and Zervos (1998) took us beyond the traditional focus on the intermediation sector, capturing, in their specifications, the independent effects of both banks and stock markets upon growth. Furthermore, recognising that measures of the size of the financial sector cannot capture the efficiency with which financial institutions and markets carry out their functions, the authors introduced a number of innovative measures, such as stock market turnover, as a proxy for stock market liquidity. Rajan and Zingales (1998a) also took a broader view of financial development, introducing accounting standards as an indicator of a country’s financial sophistication.
The empirical work in this paper, therefore, draws upon the domestic credit and accounting standards measures adopted by Rajan and Zingales (1998a), and the bank credit, stock market capitalisation and stock market liquidity measures employed by Levine and Zervos (1998).
The paper is organised as follows. In Section 2, we review the key contributions to the empirical
literature, focussing on how authors have sought to measure financial development and establish causality. In Section 3, we outline some stylised facts, going on in Sections 4 and 5 to present the results from our additional econometric tests. We employ Rajan and Zingales’ (1998a) dataset and methodology in Sections 4.1 and 4.2 to test first for the stability of the results across OECD and non-OECD samples, and then for omitted variables. We then adopt Levine and Zervos’ (1998) data and methodology in Sections 5.1 and 5.2 to explore the robustness of the role of stock market development. Section 6 concludes. Details of data and sources are provided in the Data Appendix.
Toward a Dual Education System: Poverty Reduction in Bolivia
I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Despite the implementation of a series of stabilisation and structural
adjustment measures since 1985, Bolivia’s poverty level has not changed as much
as expected by the advocates of these reforms. To this date, Bolivia remains one
of the poorest countries in Latin America. The limited success of development
strategies on efficiency as well as on equity grounds is no exception among the
countries that followed the recommendations of the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the 1980s and 1990s. The tendency of the
Washington institutions to promote rapid market liberalisation as the panacea of
economic development seemingly irrespective of a country’s specific
circumstances has become increasingly under attack. “Give them an inch of
nuance, and they’ll take a mile of the status quo” (Kanbur and Vines, 2000, p.
101) seems to be an appropriate description of their stance and attitude. By the
mid-1990s, they were regarded by the public in many developing countries as an
enemy of the poor (Kanbur and Vines, 2000, pp. 100-101). Liberalisation was
considered as the basis of growth, and growth combined with the provision of
basic educational, health, and social services would reduce poverty. The
dissatisfaction with the results of the free-market approach, in particular in the
aftermath of the East Asian crisis, has led to a more comprehensive
understanding of poverty and poverty reduction measures in recent years. In
particular, institutional aspects are stressed more frequently, going beyond the
state-versus-market dichotomy. The structural characteristics of developing
economies are recognised and emphasised (for example Meier, 2000, p. 39). On
an operational level, an example for this new thinking are the Poverty Reduction
Strategy Papers (PRSPs) demanded from the participants in the Highly Indebted
Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, e.g. from Bolivia.
This paper contributes to a comprehensive approach to poverty reduction,
which takes into account the structural conditions prevailing in the labour market
of a developing economy. The labour market transmits technological and
structural changes and policies into employment and incomes. In contrast to rural
areas, people in urban economies rely on market exchanges and, consequently,
on cash income. The poor generate cash income almost exclusively on the labour
market. Thus, the understanding of the labour market is crucial to the analysis of
urban poverty. The central policy themes in urban poverty reduction, such as
education, social protection, and microenterprise development, are closely related
to the labour market. Thus, a labour market perspective yields important insights
for comprehensive poverty reduction strategies. This contrasts with the view of
many analysts, who still address labour market issues under the label of
liberalisation and flexibilisation (Guasch, 1999).
Segmentation and the presence of an informal sector have often been
referred to as the principal characteristics of the labour market in developing
countries. In the second chapter, a labour market view is developed that
emphasises structural features and constraints. The guiding ideas will be
informality as a descriptive and segmentation as an analytical concept.
Different approaches to labour markets in developing economies are reviewed.
Segmentation is found to be driven by divergent demand-side developments
combined with limited labour market mobility. In segmented labour markets,
which exhibit an important degree of informality, vicious circles will be
identified that keep people trapped in jobs with low incomes and, therefore, in
poverty. The third chapter analyses the structural characteristics and the
functioning of the Bolivian labour market. To this end, the degree of informality
in the labour market is explored. Empirical studies are reviewed that support the
hypothesis of a segmented labour market with vicious poverty circles. The policy
implications for poverty reduction efforts in Bolivia are formulated in the fourth
chapter. The last chapter concludes with an outlook with regard to future
theoretical and empirical research, and policy formulation.
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